Turkey faces economic consequences if conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh escalates

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Another aggravation of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh made it possible for Turkey to immediately stand up for Azerbaijan. At the same time, the Turkish authorities did not hesitate in expressions and promised to use their army in the conflict. However, a real war in the region is not beneficial to anyone, including Turkey. But Erdogan’s ambitions are a real threat to the Turkish economy, which shapes the quality of life of the Turks.

It was surprising to hear Ankara’s threatening statements in the summer, when Armenia and Azerbaijan were again on the brink of war. During the July escalation, Turkey showed unexpected involvement in the conflict. This was reflected not only in the harshness of Erdogan’s statements, who called Armenia an “invader”, but also in military aid to Azerbaijan, as well as in the conduct of joint exercises with Azerbaijan in July-August, which turned out to be another considerable budget expenditure item. In addition, Turkish economists did not take into account that the conflict in the Transcaucasus threatens the gas pipeline from Azerbaijan to the EU and Turkey’s plans to transport Turkmen gas to Europe.

It is difficult to imagine what real goals Erdogan can pursue by getting involved in this adventure. There is no doubt that assistance in the return of Nagorno-Karabakh under the control of Azerbaijan would be Ankara’s triumph in the Transcaucasus and would open the way for her to Central Asia. But Turkish strategists cannot fail to understand that this is a fantastic option that cannot be realized. Moreover, by military methods. So this whole plan turned out to be a waste of money.

Ankara’s plan to intervene in this conflict has become much less ambitious after the outlook for economic difficulties.

After the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian was silting up in the EU, that in December the EU countries would hold another summit, which, among other things, would discuss Turkey’s aggressive behavior with the possibility of imposing tough sanctions, Erdogan moderated his ambitions.

Turkey is going through difficult times. Lira exchange rate and economic indicators are falling. And the loud conflict in the neighborhood should distract the masses from their bitter thoughts about the future. Be that as it may, Turkey’s militaristic policy in recent years has only intensified, and with it, ambitions are growing, which, as it seems to Ankara, can be satisfied by the army and navy. However, Ankara’s intervention in the Karabakh conflict is condemned by the European Union. This means that Turkey is gradually becoming a regional threat against which economic sanctions will be put forward, which will entail economic problems in the country.


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